Toward Reduction of Uncertainty in Complex Multi-reservoir River Systems

In this paper we present a novel framework for better modeling uncertainty in complex systems and demonstrate the approach applied to regulated river systems. In this framework, only the stream inflows are assumed to be purely stochastic. Other uncertain quantities are correlated to the uncertainty of the stream inflows using the dynamics of the river as the physical description of the system. We represent uncertainty in stream inflows via an error term modeled as a stochastic process. The resulting system is discretized (in random space) using stochastic collocation thus requiring only deteministic system solves. The dynamics of the river system are simulated efficiently using the performance graphs approach.